Topic: UFC 316

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

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02.24.2025 | 6:43 PM ET

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UFC 316
  • Saturday 06.07.2025 at 06:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View | Prelims: ESPN
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: Prudential Center
  • Location: Newark, New Jersey, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Jon Anik, Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Joe Rogan
  • Ticket Revenue (live gate): $6,501,177
  • Attendance: 17,343
  • MMA Bouts: 13
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Merab Dvalishvili   defeats   Sean O'Malley   via Submission, North South Choke   4:42 Round 3 of 5, 14:42 Total Bout Page
Kayla Harrison   defeats   Julianna Peña   via Submission, Kimura   4:55 Round 2 of 5, 9:55 Total Bout Page
Joe Pyfer   defeats   Kelvin Gastelum   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Mario Bautista   defeats   Patchy Mix   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Kevin Holland   defeats   Vicente Luque   via Submission, Anaconda Choke   1:03 Round 2 of 3, 6:03 Total Bout Page
Joshua Van   defeats   Bruno Silva   via KO/TKO, Right Cross to Ground Strikes   4:01 Round 3 of 3, 14:01 Total Bout Page
Azamat Murzakanov   defeats   Brendson Ribeiro   via KO/TKO, Left Hook to Ground Strikes   3:25 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Waldo Cortes-Acosta   defeats   Serghei Spivac   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Andreas Gustafsson   defeats   Khaos Williams   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Cong Wang   defeats   Ariane Lipski da Silva   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Joo Sang Yoo   defeats   Jeka Saragih   via KO/TKO, Counter Left Hook   0:28 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Quillan Salkilld   defeats   Yanal Ashmouz   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
MarQuel Mederos   defeats   Mark Choinski   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 32

freek4620
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06.05.2025 | 10:34 AM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 790 Points   |   Tied for 149th

@CrystalOctahedron 
Yanal spends a lot of time on his back as well, at least in the Rizco fight. He spends a lot of the first 2 rounds on bottom and gets his TKO shortly after ramming Rizco with a low shot. I don't think Salkilld should be -485 but he is certainly the favorite. 
Anarkhy
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06.05.2025 | 11:10 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 630 Points   |   Tied for 2841st

Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley II
Merab Dvalishvili, SUB, R3
shockingly im seeing merab close the show here with a sub i saw glimpses of it in the first fight but merab seemed like he was playing around i think this is merabs year to shine

Peña vs. Harrison
Kayla Harrison, SUB, R1
written in stone pena has no chance here

Gastelum vs. Pyfer
Joe Pyfer, SUB, R2
pyfer by finish i could even see him being the first to ko fatselum

Bautista vs. Mix
Patchy Mix, SUB, R1
been waiting for patchy to debut for so long now bautista is getting choked out

Luque vs. Holland
Kevin Holland, TKO, R2
both are older and slowly on there way out i still cant get over luques brain bleed and the fact that his last two losses are by ko i think holland with that reach will find luques chin and shut the lights out

Silva vs. Van
Joshua Van, DEC
josh van doing what he does best brawling and outvoluming the opponent

Murzakanov vs. Ribeiro
Azamat Murzakanov, TKO, R1
why is this the matchmaking we give azamat brendson is wild and could cause a crazy moment but more then likely he gets koed

Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, TKO, R2
upset pick because everytime spivac fights someone and cant get them down he gets folded

Williams vs. Gustafsson
Khaos Williams, DEC
should be a great fight i think khaos will land the bigger shots

Lipski da Silva vs. Wang
Cong Wang, TKO, R1
lipski is real chinny

Yoo vs. Saragih
Jeka Saragih, TKO, R1
jeka sucks but has ko power and most of these asian prospects end up being busts

Salkilld vs. Ashmouz
Yanal Ashmouz, DEC
odds are insane here lmao i dont think either fighter is that good and this fight seems even to me so now at plus 370 give me the dog

Mederos vs. Choinski
MarQuel Mederos, TKO, R3
choinski seems like a bjj bum could be wrong

pashaboyer
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06.05.2025 | 11:19 AM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 815 Points   |   Tied for 73rd

The line is set at -155 for over 1.5 rounds on bovada. Bookies don't believe it ends round one. Gufstson fight. I actually like to Sprinkle Gustefson by finish round 3 at +1400. He's done it before 
pashaboyer
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06.05.2025 | 11:20 AM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 815 Points   |   Tied for 73rd

Or Dec 
pashaboyer
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06.05.2025 | 11:33 AM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 815 Points   |   Tied for 73rd

@Belal Sucks 
i like your take-600 against a current champ is crazy
scabu
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06.05.2025 | 11:52 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 675 Points   |   Tied for 1794th

@pashaboyer 
Waldo won that fight, and that was years ago
scabu
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06.05.2025 | 11:54 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 675 Points   |   Tied for 1794th

@HectorTheInspector 
lukey grapples now to avoid taking shots and holland isnt the best at avoiding that
gaschromatograph
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06.05.2025 | 12:02 PM ET

Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 695 Points   |   Tied for 1256th

Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley II 
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC 
This does seem like a pretty clear one here and I will stick with it, but it feels like this rematch could be closer and more competetive than their last fight. It's definitely not out of the realm of possibility that Sean has improved his game specifically against Merab over the last year that he might have done just enough to either get the judges on his side if it gets to a decision (which we know in the UFC shouldn't be too hard for him) or he could find the shot that really hurts Merab enough for a TKO.
 
A lot of media are going into Sean's inactivity and his bragging about not being able to handle social media as a motivation and positive change that will lead to an O'Malley win, somehow totally forgetting that within that same time of Sean not fighting, Merab also beat, you know, Umar Nurmagomedov even more clearly than he beat O'Malley and Merab was the underdog in both of those fights, but NO ONE was expecting Merab to beat Umar in the way that he did, where Merab even broke records, sort of solidifying himself as one of the GOAT bantamweights. So while O'Malley's lifestyle change might help him, Merab was still beating top 3 BWs and in particular Umar who I think would've probably destroyed O'Malley in a fight. I still think ultimately Merab will win this fight, maybe even if the judges don't give it to him. 

* Edited at 06.05.2025, 12:04 PM ET *

CrystalOctahedron
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06.05.2025 | 12:09 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 615 Points   |   Tied for 3346th

@freek4620 
thanks for referring to that fight, I had not seen it. he did end up on top end of R1 for a whole minute and reverses in R2 to spend 3 mins on top as well. I wouldn't say it is the best look with him being taken down so easily, but he did reverse the position both times and it was 4 years ago. Can't say he laid on his back for two rounds, but agree that he got taken down very easily with no resistance in both rounds. 
CrystalOctahedron
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06.05.2025 | 12:12 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 615 Points   |   Tied for 3346th

@pashaboyer 
lines do not indicate what bookies believe in, it indicates what the bookies believe will make them the most money. then can damn well set a line to be +900 if it makes people not bet that line and they stand to make more money by getting people to parlay those or bet large amounts using memes like uNiT sCaLiNg lol
pashaboyer
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06.05.2025 | 12:28 PM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 815 Points   |   Tied for 73rd

@scabu 
i know he won that fight. That was the point, why I brought it up
pashaboyer
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06.05.2025 | 12:29 PM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 815 Points   |   Tied for 73rd

@CrystalOctahedron 
 you will never hear me trash your opinion or your breakdowns on massive underdogs. You have been right often. 
pashaboyer
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06.05.2025 | 12:33 PM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 815 Points   |   Tied for 73rd

@CrystalOctahedron 
but, let me just say this. Over 1.5 and over 2.5 at -155 on bovada has been hitting at an extreme number. And that's because I actually keep track 
Mav58
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06.05.2025 | 12:34 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 9 Winners, 2 Perfect, 375 Points   |   Tied for 6696th

Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley II
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
Sean is taking hte rematch very seriously and he's always dangerous to begin with, I just don't think it matters. Sean hasn't fought anyone since he lost the title (which wasn't that long ago), and Merab looked great against Umar. I don't see how anything could be different in this rematch. Even if Sean stuffs an additional takedown or two, Merab is relentless.

Peña vs. Harrison
Kayla Harrison, DEC
Kayla is different. Pena has the uncommon ferocity in WMMA, but Kayla has the same thing paired with size, strength, and elite experience.

Bautista vs. Mix
Patchy Mix, SUB, R2
I love that they're throwing Patchy right into the mix (no pun intended) with a challenge right away. Bautista is a good grappler and his whole thing is that he's a pressure fighter and nullifier, so this could be a very close fight or even an upset wouldn't shock me. I still think Patchy will win because he's more dangerous, but if he ends up losing I'm not selling my stock. Bautista is no joke.

Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta
Serghei Spivac, SUB, R1
Gonna keep picking against Waldo until he beats a decent opponent. He looked very good against Spann tbf, but Spann is an unreliable light heavyweight. Waldo looks extremely limited and has only beaten most of his opponents with a jab. Spivac might have trouble with that fast jab but shouldn't have an issue implementing his wrestling.

Williams vs. Gustafsson
Khaos Williams, TKO, R1
No hate but I don't get why people seem to be high on Gustafsson. I've only seen his contender series fight and he looked like a big guy who can maul in the clinch, but not very technical and kinda sloppy. Khaos is a fellow big boy who is pretty technical on the feet and has big power, so I think that's a bad recipe for Gustaffson.

pashaboyer
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06.05.2025 | 12:37 PM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 815 Points   |   Tied for 73rd

@Mav58 
 Khaos is technical? What? He lands at 41% significant striking accuracy.  Lol
jeffferson
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06.05.2025 | 12:38 PM ET

Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 755 Points   |   Tied for 410th

i think holland wins but luque is probably one of the best dogs on this card
pashaboyer
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06.05.2025 | 12:46 PM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 815 Points   |   Tied for 73rd

@jeffferson 



  • Vicente Luque Wins by KO, TKO or DQ+800

  • Kevin Holland Wins by KO, TKO or DQ+130

  • Vicente Luque Wins by Submission+850

  • Kevin Holland Wins by Submission+500

  • Vicente Luque Wins by Decision or Technical Decision+550

  • Kevin Holland Wins by Decision or Technical Decision+340
pashaboyer
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06.05.2025 | 12:47 PM ET

Predictions: 12 of 13 Winners, 6 Perfect, 815 Points   |   Tied for 73rd

They are implying Kevin is better anywhere the fight goes. But, Kevin can be a letdown 
CrystalOctahedron
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06.05.2025 | 12:48 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 615 Points   |   Tied for 3346th

@pashaboyer 
thanks, I am just saying in general, the lines historically have been set to trap people into avoiding the actual winner because the oddsmaker knew people would never bet certain odds. the guy who did it first (oddmaker) like 30 years ago talks about it himself lol. 


Mav58
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06.05.2025 | 12:49 PM ET

Predictions: 6 of 9 Winners, 2 Perfect, 375 Points   |   Tied for 6696th

@pashaboyer 
hmm maybe technical isn't exactly the right word. He seems like he has more boxing skill despite the accuracy number, and he's able to land big shots before his opponents do. Also I don't take much stock in signifigant strikes because it's a made-up stat by the UFC. 
But I never do tape study for my picks, it's all for fun, so if you think I'm wrong you might have a point lol. 

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